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Проблемы и вызовы международной валютной системы(Problems and challenges of the international monetary system)
1 Definition of modern world financial system
1.1 International currency system: historic evolution
1.2 Globalisation of financial markets
2 Features of world financial system
2.1 Exchange rate and fundamental factors affecting exchange rates
2.2 Current problems of European currency system
2.3 Place of Russia in the world financial system
3 Development of world financial system
3.1 Problems and future trends of world financial system development
3.2 Prospects of world currency system reforming
List of references
List of references
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to establish greater measure of monetary stability in the EC;
to facilitate the convergence of economic development and give fresh impetus to the process of European Union;
creation of a zone of monetary stability in Europe, encompassing greater stability at home (domestic monetary developments consistent with stable domestic costs and prices) and abroad (exchange rate stability). Indeed, a high degree of exchange rate stability was considered a major objective of the EMS, as a basis for further economic integration among EC countries, for economic growth and for the narrowing of differences in living standards. Stability of domestic costs and prices was also seen as an essential precondition for further economic integration.
The exchange rate mechanism of the EMS comprised a system of
Показать всеfixed but adjustable exchange rates. Each currency had a central rate expressed in terms of the European Currency Unit (ECU).
The creation of an economic and monetary union, featuring a single currency is a complex task, politically and technically, that requires a high degree of convergence of economic policies and performance. This means that if an agreed ERM is implemented, member countries would have to embark on meeting various economic criteria geared towards greater convergence of economic policies. Under the Maastricht Agreement, the framework for the emergence of the European Union and single currency (Euro), greater convergence of the economies is measured by four criteria (Habermeier and Ungerer, 1992: 26):
exchange rate stability; and
the sustainability of the fiscal position.
The requirement of fiscal sustainability entailed restriction of fiscal deficit to less than 3.0 per cent of GDP, limiting of public debt ratio to 60 per cent of GDP, and close coordination of national fiscal policies. It was feared that excessive fiscal deficits, often, financed by monetary expansion, endanger price stability and so should be avoided.
Also, it was feared that unsustainable fiscal policy in one or more countries could undermine the common monetary policy. Also, under a monetary union, the costs of excessive fiscal deficits would have to be borne by all countries and undisciplined countries would have to be bailed out by the other member countries. It was, therefore, required that in order for a country to adopt the single currency, it must meet the above fiscal criteria along with the following:
inflation rate should not be more than 1. per cent higher than the inflation rate of the three member states with the lowest inflation;
its interest rates on long-term government debt should not be more than 2.0 percentage points higher than comparable interest rates in the same three member states;
its exchange rate must be maintained within the narrow band of fluctuation of the ERM for two years without a devaluation at the initiative of the country in question.
1.2 Globalisation of financial markets
Globalisation of the financial markets, in a revolutionary way influenced to all world markets, it is based on globalisation of commodity flows as a result of division of labor and scientific and technical progress. At first raw material resources were globalised in the middle of XX century, they were followed by currencies, securities and derivative assets. As a result the end of the century was characterized by serious changes in world finance, introduction of innovative methods of the bank asset management. Methods of development of bank activity gain new lines, at the same time there are absolutely new types of operations and the services, not having analogs in the past.
Process of financial globalisation is concentrated first of all in three main centers of world economy: USA, Western Europe and Japan. The global turnover in the market of currencies reaches 0.9-1.1 trillion dollars every day. Inflow of the speculative capital can not only exceed needs of this or that country, but also destabilize its situation. Fast globalisation of finance still remains the most important reason of vulnerability of world economy. Integration of the financial markets increases risk of system failures.
Prompt development of information technologies and the systems, allowing carrying out payments and trade assets became the base precondition of acceleration of integration processes, and also to receive operational information about a condition of the world markets in real time. NASDAQ, Cedel, Euroclear, SWIFT, both modern Reuters and Bloomberg gave the chance to unite the world in one market in search of the most favorable possibilities of the investments. Integration processes between the countries led to removal of barriers to an entrance on the national markets of the capital of foreign financial institutions, to increase of mobility of the capital and decrease in expenses. All this occurred against deregulation and liberalization in the field of international trade and improvement of investment climate in many, including developing countries. As a result on a global scale the capital gained considerable mobility, flowing worldwide to the most attractive and more favorable possibilities of the investment. Nature of operations of participants of the global market with a diversification of assets and passives on the countries and regions, existence of a wide network of representations, branches and the affiliated organizations abroad doesn't allow to identify them only with the country of a national identity any more. Globalisation of the markets means also strengthening of a role of the international markets in implementation of lending operations by residents of the various countries. It already led to growth of the international network of financial institutions and corporations, to increase of a share of the business falling on foreign countries, and to fundamental changes in their systems of organization and management.
Globalisation makes the corresponding demands to participants of the markets, assumes specific possibilities and the risks characterizing this stage of development of international finance.
Participants of the global market obviously should correspond to quality requirements of products and services, positioning in the market, technologies, and to transparency of activity and reporting. The main cause is first of all growth in international competition between creditors and borrowers — residents of the various countries. Today costs of the capital and regular access to cheap resources does not taken for granted. And if rather recently European, for example, banks worked in rather quiet environment, today they should ego-trip in exhausting fight for position in the market. Benchmarking — orientation to the best — is as much as possible shown in the global market where pressure of the competition is extremely high. As a result there are the highest rate of development and introduction of innovations in the financial sphere.
Except the capital, the parties of a global exchange are modern theories of management of portfolios of assets, professional readiness of participants and financial innovations. The latest information technologies and theories of management allow to develop and quickly modify own risk control systems and optimise them. As a result risks can be most adequately estimated, identified and controllable according to individual investment strategy.
Computerization and information of the markets which consists in universal use by participants of the international financial markets of the latest information systems, global databases and the integrated computer control systems. Digital technologies made revolution in the financial world and further will influence it even more actively. Thanks to information technologies it is possible to implement bank operations without borders. Today the unified information systems are the main precondition for emergence of modern financial products and the global markets. Often decision-making process is based on difficult computer modeling, the statistical analysis of huge data files and use of the latest methods of mathematical modeling. In this regard the importance gains reliability of the systems serving information and payment streams, trade in assets and storage of securities.
As a result of liberalization and deregulation of the markets, removal of legislative restrictions, barriers of regulation and growth of operations of foreign participants in the national markets there is a washing out of borders between their various sectors and segments on a global scale. Universal banks become underwriters, organizers and traders on a bond market and investment banks will organize and participate in the international syndicated credits. There is abolition of segmentation and among large international institutional investors which by use of the high-structured tools start to put in nonconventional financial instruments. As a result of merges and absorption there is a concentration of huge financial resources at limited number of the global players, capable to conduct active operations in the various markets of the debt capital. All this still strengthens the competition and requirements to efficiency.
Globalisation and information technologies gave the chance to more effective capital distribution. The international investors and borrowers face a choice among huge number of the available markets and products with specific characteristics of profitability and risks. Today the investor can choose from more than 36 thousand quoted enterprises at more than 150 stock exchanges of the world, and the analysis of financial instruments, markets and participants represents the most difficult task even for the professional.
However there is a possibility of rational orientation on financial products and search of the appendix of the capital without the emotional pressing arising owing to partnership as now the majority of operations passes not directly between the creditor and the borrower. In this regard globalisation can be considered as the catalyst of rational distribution of the capital weighed taking into account risk.
Globalisation of the financial markets creates new, first of all external cause and effect chains: facts of world politics, economy, science, demography etc. Owing to emotional perception people they cause the most unexpected reactions that in turn are immediately reflected in a national and international course of events. Besides, globalisation leads to a difference between the participants - global and focused on domestic market - and increases potential of non-purpose use of a set of various financial instruments in a pursuit of fast return from the capital. Certainly, risks of the global financial markets are not new, but prompt growth and unpredictability of their global interaction that can lead to more difficult specific risks is new.
In spite of the fact that globalisation became the integral aspect of business, the degree of appeal of global business for the majority is ambiguous question. Level of requirements and an entrance barrier in global business is rather high today for separate types of business. Costs of acquisition and service of information systems, high requirements to experts are very high. Only few can play here a serious role, and leadership in separately country doesn't mean leadership on a global scale. Nevertheless such high-quality development of the world markets testifies to their higher efficiency and an increasing role of global international financial markets. 17
Financial globalisation can help improve the functioning of the financial system through two main channels. First, financial globalisation can increase the availability of funds. Second, financial globalisation can improve the financial infrastructure, what can reduce the problem of asymmetric information. As a consequence, financial globalisation can potentially decrease adverse selection and moral hazard, enhancing the availability of credit.
Although financial globalisation has several potential benefits, financial globalisation can also carry some risks. The recent stream of financial crises and contagion after countries liberalized their financial systems and became integrated with world financial markets, might lead some to suggest that globalisation generates financial volatility and crises.
Even though domestic factors tend to be key determinants of crises, there are different channels through which financial globalisation can be related to crises as well. First, when a country liberalizes its financial system it becomes subject to market discipline exercised by both foreign and domestic investors. When an economy is closed, only domestic investors monitor the economy and react to unsound fundamentals. In open economies, the joint force of domestic and foreign investors might generate a crisis when fundamentals deteriorate. This might prompt countries to try to achieve sound fundamentals, though this might take a long time. Furthermore, investors might overreact, being over-optimistic in good times and over-pessimistic in bad ones, not necessarily disciplining countries. Therefore, small changes in fundamentals, or even news, can trigger sharp changes in investors’ appetite for risk.
Second, globalisation can also lead to crises if there are imperfections in international financial markets. The imperfections in financial markets can generate bubbles, herding behavior, speculative attacks, and crashes among other things. Imperfections in international capital markets can lead to crises even in countries with sound fundamentals. For example, if investors believe that the exchange rate is unsustainable they might speculate against the currency, what can lead to a self-fulfilling balance of payments crisis regardless of market fundamentals.
Third, globalisation can lead to crises due to the importance of external factors, even in countries with sound fundamentals and even in the absence of imperfections in international capital markets. If a country becomes dependent on foreign capital, sudden shifts in foreign capital flows can create financing difficulties and economic downturns. These shifts do not necessarily depend on country fundamentals.
Fourth, financial globalisation can also lead to financial crises through contagion, namely by shocks that are transmitted across countries. Three broad channels of contagion have been identified in the literature: real links, financial links, and herding behavior or “unexplained high correlations.” Financial links exist when two economies are connected through the international financial system. One example of financial links is when leveraged institutions face margin calls. When the value of their collateral falls, due to a negative shock in one country, leveraged companies need to increase their reserves. Therefore, they sell part of their valuable holdings on the countries that are still unaffected by the initial shock. This mechanism propagates the shock to other economies. Finally, financial markets might transmit shocks across countries due to herding behavior or panics. At the root of this herding behavior is asymmetric information. Information is costly so investors remain uniformed. Therefore, investors try to infer future price changes based on how other markets are reacting.18
2 Features of world financial system
2.1 Exchange rate and fundamental factors affecting exchange rates
An exchange rate can be defined as the price of one currency in the terms of another. It is the value of a foreign nation's currency in terms of the home nation's currency. The exchange rate therefore is the way a country manages its foreign exchange policy.
The efficiency the country manages its currency in relation to foreign currencies is directly proportional to the strength of the economy of that particular country. There are 4 types of exchange rates:
1) floating exchange rate;
2) pegged exchange rate;
3) fixed exchange rate;
4) currency board.
Floating Exchange Rate:
A managed floating rate systems is a hybrid of a fixed exchange rate and a flexible exchange rate system. In a country with a managed floating exchange rate system, the central bank becomes a key participant in the foreign exchange market.
Unlike in a fixed exchange rate regime, the central bank does not have an explicit set value for the currency; however, unlike in a flexible exchange rate regime, it doesn’t allow the market to freely determine the value of the currency.
Instead, the central bank has either an implicit target value or an explicit range of target values for their currency: it intervenes in the foreign exchange market by buying and selling domestic and foreign currency to keep the exchange rate close to this desired implicit value or within the desired target values.
Under a managed floating regime, the central bank holds stocks of foreign currency: these holdings are known as foreign exchange reserves. It is important to realize that a managed float can only work when the implicit target is close to the equilibrium rate that would prevailin the absence of central bank intervention. Otherwise, the central bank will deplete its foreign exchange reserves and the country will be in a flexible exchange rate system because they can no longer intervene.
Pegged Exchange Rate:
In this case, the currency is “pegged” to a particular value or band and the rates are adjusted from time to time to enable them to keep within the defined or pegged range. Here also, there are further sub-categories such as crawling bands, crawling pegs and rates which are pegged with horizontal bands.
Crawling bands: In this case, the value is fixed, but the rate is enabled to rise and fall within the band. This is done at regular intervals and the extent of fluctuation in rates depends on the situation in the economy.
Crawling Pegs: This exchange rate arrangement is a middle course between fixed and flexible exchange rates. It is appropriate for countries that have significant inflation compared with their trading partners, as has often been the case in Latin America. Under the crawling peg, the government fixes the exchange rate on any day but over time adjusts the rate in a pre-announced fashion, taking into consideration the inflation differentials between it and its major trading partners. Essentially, the peg can be either passive, meaning that the exchange rate is altered in light of past inflation, or active, whereby the country announces in advance the exchange rate adjustments it intends to make. The advantage of this peg is that it combines the flexibility needed to accommodate different trends in inflation rates between countries while maintaining relative certainty about future exchange rates relevant to exporters and importers. The disadvantage is that the crawling peg leaves the currency open to speculative attack because the government is committed on any one day or over a period to a particular value of the exchange rate.
Pegged with Horizontal Bands: In such a system, the currency can fluctuate around the central rate but within a predetermined horizontal band, usually set at a value of more that 1%.
The reasons to peg a currency are linked to stability. Especially in today's developing nations, a country may decide to peg its currency to create a stable atmosphere for foreign investment. With a peg, the investor will always know what his or her investment's value is, and therefore will not have to worry about daily fluctuations. A pegged currency can also help to lower inflation rates and generate demand, which results from greater confidence in the stability of the currency.
Fixed Exchange Rate:
These rates can be directly converted into other currencies. Here, the currency is tallied with another one or a group of them, or it may be linked to the value of gold. Скрыть
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