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Global Macroeconomic Risks Analysis

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16 сентября 2014
17 сентября 2014
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Risk management in general and credit risk analys is in particular has been the focus of extensive research in the past several years. Credit risk is the dominant source of risk for banks and the subject of strict regulatory oversight and policy debate.
Several issues remain of primary concern: 1) continued economic sluggishness and financial risk in Europe; 2) a fragile recovery in the U.S.;3) the potential for a slowdown in emerging economies; and 4) increased geopolitical tensions in Asia.
Nordic economies are tightly connected by cross-border bank balance sheet linkages, which extend globally. The development of a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy which articulates these linkages, and its application to the analysis of spillovers to and from the Nor Показать все

Confidence in the global financial system has become fragile, as incremental policy making has yet to fully resolve near and medium term vulnerabilities. Recent steps – particularly taken by euro area policy makers – are encouraging and have been essential in addressing investors’ biggest fears, but more complete policies will be needed to stabilize the system. The combination of the weakened outlook for growth and volatile and wide peripheral spreads, has led to an increase in macroeconomic risks. Emerging market risks have also risen. Credit risks remain at elevated levels, especially in the euro area periphery.
The recent global financial crisis has resulted in global, regional and national financial stability becoming important policy issues facing policy makers, financ Показать все

Introduction 3
1. Global macroeconomic risks 5
2. Global financial stability 16
3. Economic risks in Nordic economies 20
Conclusion 26
Literature 28


1. Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2012. Finance, Inequality and the Poor, Journal of Economic Growth, 2012, 12(1).
2. Carey, M. (2012), A Guide to Choosing Absolute Bank Capital Requirements, Journal of Banking & Finance, 26 (5).
3. Comfort, L. K., Boin, A., & Demchak, C. C. The Rise of Resilience, in Designing Resilience: Preparing for extreme events. Pittsburg: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2010.
4. Duffee, G. (2009), Estimating the Price of Default Risk. Review of Financial Studies,12(1).
5. Fariborz Moshirian. Global financial stability: http://www.elsevier.com/social-sciences/economics-and-finance/virtual-special-issues-from-the-journal-of-banking-and-finance/global-financial-stability.
6. Global Financial Stability Report. A Report by the Monetary Показать все
Macroeconomic Risk Overviews.
The crisis is rooted in structural issues in the Euro-zone related to the combination of a single currency (euro) combined with 17 fiscal authorities. Several negative outcomes are possible from the sovereign debt crisis, including sequential sovereign default, a break-up of the euro, bank failures, political regime change, and rapid deleveraging/deflation.
Similar to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the potential crises in Japan and the U.S. are founded on very large and growing fiscal debt burdens, combined with slow growth. However, unlike Europe, Japan and the U.S. both have single fiscal and monetary authorities. Thus, central bankscan (and did) print money to avoid the risk of default. Recently, Japan’s central bank announced a very aggressive s Показать все
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