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Introduction

Confidence in the global financial system has become fragile, as incremental policy making has yet to fully resolve near and medium term vulnerabilities. Recent steps – particularly taken by euro area policy makers – are encouraging and have been essential in addressing investors’ biggest fears, but more complete policies will be needed to stabilize the system. The combination of the weakened outlook for growth and volatile and wide peripheral spreads, has led to an increase in macroeconomic risks. Emerging market risks have also risen. Credit risks remain at elevated levels, especially in the euro area periphery.
The recent global financial crisis has resulted in global, regional and national financial stability becoming important policy issues facing policy makers, financial institutions and financial markets. As another global financial crisis is possible in time, the soundness, stability, transparency of financial systems have become one of the more important agenda items of the G20 and other international institutions/forum such as the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements, and the Financial Stability Board (FSB).
The European sovereign debt crisis and high debt in most of the developed world have been the main focus of global macroeconomic risks. But a big driver of global growth is demographics, which will weigh on productive capacity and on government finances. Europe is currently the biggest risk to the global economy. At this point, the dissolution of the eurozone is a remote possibility. The cost of disintegration, relative to the benefit, would be too high for the member countries and the world. The European debt crisis has more to do with the lack of fiscal union than it has to do with debt. The proposals presented at the December 9 EU summit are positive steps toward a fiscal union and necessary for survival of the region
The Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have small advanced economies that are tightly connected by trade and financial linkages, which extend globally. But these structural similarities are accompanied by important differences. The export bases of Denmark, Finland and Sweden are dive
rsified, while that of Norway is concentrated in energy commodities. These countries also have different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes: Denmark and Finland respectively peg to and use the euro, while Norway and Sweden target inflation.
Today several issues remain of primary concern: 1) continued economic sluggishness and financial risk in Europe; 2) a fragile recovery in the U.S.; 3) the potential for a slowdown in emerging economies; and 4) increased geopolitical tensions in Asia.

Contents

Introduction 3
1. Global macroeconomic risks 5
2. Global financial stability 16
3. Economic risks in Nordic economies 20
Conclusion 26
Literature 28

Conclusion


Risk management in general and credit risk analys is in particular has been the focus of extensive research in the past several years. Credit risk is the dominant source of risk for banks and the subject of strict regulatory oversight and policy debate.
Several issues remain of primary concern: 1) continued economic sluggishness and financial risk in Europe; 2) a fragile recovery in the U.S.;3) the potential for a slowdown in emerging economies; and 4) increased geopolitical tensions in Asia.
Nordic economies are tightly connected by cross-border bank balance sheet linkages, which extend globally. The development of a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy which articulates these linkages, and its application to the analysis of spillovers to and from the Nordic economies, remains an objective for future research.
Four primary concerns face the global economy:
1. continued economic sluggishness and financial risk in Europe;
2. a fragile recovery in the U.S.;
3. the potential for a slowdown in emerging economies;
4. increased geopolitical tension in Asia.
In the developed economies, it is expected GDP growth to remain sluggish in 2013 due to high unemployment, fiscal austerity measures, and continued deleveraging.
As governments loosen monetary policy in emerging economies, the cyclical slowdown could experience a turning point in 2013.
Reduced demand from developed economies remains a headwind for growth in emerging economies.
Slow growth globally should keep inflation subdued in the near-term. The potential for the return of inflationary pressures exists in developed economies as
central banks continue to implement historic monetary stimulus, most recently in Japan. Inflation could also return in emerging economies as monetary policy is loosened.
Continued monetary stimulus in Europe, the emerging economies, the U.S., and Japan is likely going forward.
Further fiscal stimulus looks unlikely in 2013-2014 in developed economies, as the political will declines in the face of higher government debt levels.
The exception is Japan, which has pledged to increase fiscal spending in an effort to fight deflation.

Literature


1. Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2012. Finance, Inequality and the Poor, Journal of Economic Growth, 2012, 12(1).
2. Carey, M. (2012), A Guide to Choosing Absolute Bank Capital Requirements, Journal of Banking & Finance, 26 (5).
3. Comfort, L. K., Boin, A., & Demchak, C. C. The Rise of Resilience, in Designing Resilience: Preparing for extreme events. Pittsburg: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2010.
4. Duffee, G. (2009), Estimating the Price of Default Risk. Review of Financial Studies,12(1).
5. Fariborz Moshirian. Global financial stability: http://www.elsevier.com/social-sciences/economics-and-finance/virtual-special-issues-from-the-journal-of-banking-and-finance/global-financial-stability.
6. Global Financial Stability Report. A Report by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department on Market Developments and Issues: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/GFSR.
7. Global Financial Stability Report: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/10/imf-financial-idUSL1E8L9OQC20121010.
8. International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2012, “Restoring Confidence and Containing Global Spillovers”, Global Financial Stability Report 2/2, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
9. International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2013, “Nordic Regional Report”, IMF Country Report 13/274, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
10. Kaplan, R.S. & Mikes, A. Managing Risks: A New Framework. In Harvard Business Review, 2012.
11. Laeven, Luc and Ross Levine, 2009, “Bank Governance, Regulation, and Risk Taking” Journal of Financial Economics 93(2).
12. Macroeconomic and country risk outlook. Economic outlook № 1999, 2012, September.
13. Macroeconomic Assessment Group (MAG), 2012, “Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the Transition to Stronger Capital and Liquidity Requirements: Final Report”, (Basel: Bank for International Settlements).
14. Macroeconomic risks to economy rising:http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-macroeconomic-risks-to-economy-rising-rbi-323810.
15. Macroeconomic risks. 2013 Outlook: http://www.pirelli.com/corporate/en/investors/risk/external_risks/macroeconomic_risks/default.html.
16. Review of macroeconomic factors and risks:http://www.mrsk-cp.ru/?id=4737.
17. Saunders, Anthony and Linda Allen (2012), Credit Risk Measurement – New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
18. Special Report: Building National Resilience to Global Risks: http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2013/view/section-three/special-report-building-national-resilience-to-global-risks.
19. The Global Risks 2013 report, Eighth Edition: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalRisks_Report_2013.pdf.
20. Vitek, F., 2012, “Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach”, IMF Working Paper 12/149, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

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Фрагменты работ

Introduction

Confidence in the global financial system has become fragile, as incremental policy making has yet to fully resolve near and medium term vulnerabilities. Recent steps – particularly taken by euro area policy makers – are encouraging and have been essential in addressing investors’ biggest fears, but more complete policies will be needed to stabilize the system. The combination of the weakened outlook for growth and volatile and wide peripheral spreads, has led to an increase in macroeconomic risks. Emerging market risks have also risen. Credit risks remain at elevated levels, especially in the euro area periphery.
The recent global financial crisis has resulted in global, regional and national financial stability becoming important policy issues facing policy makers, financial institutions and financial markets. As another global financial crisis is possible in time, the soundness, stability, transparency of financial systems have become one of the more important agenda items of the G20 and other international institutions/forum such as the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements, and the Financial Stability Board (FSB).
The European sovereign debt crisis and high debt in most of the developed world have been the main focus of global macroeconomic risks. But a big driver of global growth is demographics, which will weigh on productive capacity and on government finances. Europe is currently the biggest risk to the global economy. At this point, the dissolution of the eurozone is a remote possibility. The cost of disintegration, relative to the benefit, would be too high for the member countries and the world. The European debt crisis has more to do with the lack of fiscal union than it has to do with debt. The proposals presented at the December 9 EU summit are positive steps toward a fiscal union and necessary for survival of the region
The Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have small advanced economies that are tightly connected by trade and financial linkages, which extend globally. But these structural similarities are accompanied by important differences. The export bases of Denmark, Finland and Sweden are dive
rsified, while that of Norway is concentrated in energy commodities. These countries also have different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes: Denmark and Finland respectively peg to and use the euro, while Norway and Sweden target inflation.
Today several issues remain of primary concern: 1) continued economic sluggishness and financial risk in Europe; 2) a fragile recovery in the U.S.; 3) the potential for a slowdown in emerging economies; and 4) increased geopolitical tensions in Asia.

Contents

Introduction 3
1. Global macroeconomic risks 5
2. Global financial stability 16
3. Economic risks in Nordic economies 20
Conclusion 26
Literature 28

Conclusion


Risk management in general and credit risk analys is in particular has been the focus of extensive research in the past several years. Credit risk is the dominant source of risk for banks and the subject of strict regulatory oversight and policy debate.
Several issues remain of primary concern: 1) continued economic sluggishness and financial risk in Europe; 2) a fragile recovery in the U.S.;3) the potential for a slowdown in emerging economies; and 4) increased geopolitical tensions in Asia.
Nordic economies are tightly connected by cross-border bank balance sheet linkages, which extend globally. The development of a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy which articulates these linkages, and its application to the analysis of spillovers to and from the Nordic economies, remains an objective for future research.
Four primary concerns face the global economy:
1. continued economic sluggishness and financial risk in Europe;
2. a fragile recovery in the U.S.;
3. the potential for a slowdown in emerging economies;
4. increased geopolitical tension in Asia.
In the developed economies, it is expected GDP growth to remain sluggish in 2013 due to high unemployment, fiscal austerity measures, and continued deleveraging.
As governments loosen monetary policy in emerging economies, the cyclical slowdown could experience a turning point in 2013.
Reduced demand from developed economies remains a headwind for growth in emerging economies.
Slow growth globally should keep inflation subdued in the near-term. The potential for the return of inflationary pressures exists in developed economies as
central banks continue to implement historic monetary stimulus, most recently in Japan. Inflation could also return in emerging economies as monetary policy is loosened.
Continued monetary stimulus in Europe, the emerging economies, the U.S., and Japan is likely going forward.
Further fiscal stimulus looks unlikely in 2013-2014 in developed economies, as the political will declines in the face of higher government debt levels.
The exception is Japan, which has pledged to increase fiscal spending in an effort to fight deflation.

Literature


1. Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2012. Finance, Inequality and the Poor, Journal of Economic Growth, 2012, 12(1).
2. Carey, M. (2012), A Guide to Choosing Absolute Bank Capital Requirements, Journal of Banking & Finance, 26 (5).
3. Comfort, L. K., Boin, A., & Demchak, C. C. The Rise of Resilience, in Designing Resilience: Preparing for extreme events. Pittsburg: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2010.
4. Duffee, G. (2009), Estimating the Price of Default Risk. Review of Financial Studies,12(1).
5. Fariborz Moshirian. Global financial stability: http://www.elsevier.com/social-sciences/economics-and-finance/virtual-special-issues-from-the-journal-of-banking-and-finance/global-financial-stability.
6. Global Financial Stability Report. A Report by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department on Market Developments and Issues: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/GFSR.
7. Global Financial Stability Report: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/10/imf-financial-idUSL1E8L9OQC20121010.
8. International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2012, “Restoring Confidence and Containing Global Spillovers”, Global Financial Stability Report 2/2, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
9. International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2013, “Nordic Regional Report”, IMF Country Report 13/274, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
10. Kaplan, R.S. & Mikes, A. Managing Risks: A New Framework. In Harvard Business Review, 2012.
11. Laeven, Luc and Ross Levine, 2009, “Bank Governance, Regulation, and Risk Taking” Journal of Financial Economics 93(2).
12. Macroeconomic and country risk outlook. Economic outlook № 1999, 2012, September.
13. Macroeconomic Assessment Group (MAG), 2012, “Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the Transition to Stronger Capital and Liquidity Requirements: Final Report”, (Basel: Bank for International Settlements).
14. Macroeconomic risks to economy rising:http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-macroeconomic-risks-to-economy-rising-rbi-323810.
15. Macroeconomic risks. 2013 Outlook: http://www.pirelli.com/corporate/en/investors/risk/external_risks/macroeconomic_risks/default.html.
16. Review of macroeconomic factors and risks:http://www.mrsk-cp.ru/?id=4737.
17. Saunders, Anthony and Linda Allen (2012), Credit Risk Measurement – New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
18. Special Report: Building National Resilience to Global Risks: http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2013/view/section-three/special-report-building-national-resilience-to-global-risks.
19. The Global Risks 2013 report, Eighth Edition: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalRisks_Report_2013.pdf.
20. Vitek, F., 2012, “Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach”, IMF Working Paper 12/149, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

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Отзыв Филипп Минаев об авторе EkaterinaKonstantinovna 2015-01-08
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Очень благодарна автору. Отличная работа. Всё было сделано быстро и качественно. Огромнейшее спасибо. Рекомендую всем.

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